Bitcoin Price Technical Analysis (April 22): A False Breakout?

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at around $5,300. A breakout was seen above the resistance of $5,315, but it appears to be a false breakout and was confirmed by the formation of hanging man pattern. Hanging Man pattern is bearish pattern, which indicates trend reversal.

After the formation of the pattern, we see price moving downwards. The support is around $5,149 and resistance is at $5,315. The range between support and resistance can be used for swing trading.

Dow Theory

BTC price is currently in the distribution phase, a period in which informed buyers sell (distribute) their positions. This is the opposite of the accumulation phase (which was seen before) during a bull market as informed buyers are now selling into an overbought market instead of buying in an oversold market.

In this phase, overall sentiment continues to be optimistic, with expectations of higher market levels. It is also the phase in which there is continued buying by the last of the investors in the market, especially those who missed the big move but are hoping for a similar one in the near future.

Bollinger Bands

The price is moving between the channels. In addition, the RSI is neutral neither it is in oversold or overbought region, but is going down. Therefore, near term trend is bearish.

Moving Average

When taking 9 period moving averages (blue) with 21 period moving averages (red), only a bullish crossover is seen but the price is trading below the 9 period moving average and 21 period moving average, which is an indication of a downward rally.

Conclusion

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading around the $5,300 level with the resistance level at $5,315 and support at $5,149. This range between support and resistance can be used for swing trading. As per Dow Theory, the price is currently in the distribution phase, and we might see corrections during this phase. RSI is neutral. Moving average indicate a downward trend.

Therefore taking long positions is not suggested, and you should wait for some indicator to turn bullish or the price to touch support. Overall, long-term outlook is positive but in the short term we can expect some minor corrections.

Pivot Points

Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot Points R1 R2 R3
Classic 4727.1 4863.9 5102.0 5238.8 5476.9 5613.7 5851.9
Fibonacci 4863.9 5007.1 5095.6 5238.8 5382.0 5470.5 5613.7
Camarilla 5236.9 5271.3 5305.7 5238.8 5374.4 5408.8 5443.1
Woodie’s 4777.7 4889.2 5152.6 5264.1 5527.5 5639.0 5902.5

Technical Indicators

Name Value Action
RSI(14) 56.520 Buy
STOCH(9,6) 67.785 Buy
STOCHRSI(14) 96.577 Overbought
MACD(12,26) -160.200 Sell
ADX(14) 53.377 Buy
Williams %R -9.787 Overbought
CCI(14) 167.3761 Buy
ATR(14) 377.7190 Less Volatility
Highs/Lows(14) 883.1919 Buy
Ultimate Oscillator 64.047 Buy
ROC 40.578 Buy
Bull/Bear Power(13) 1440.7060 Buy
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