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After the recent fall of the crypto market in 2018, it seems to be coming back on the track very slowly and showing the signs of recovery. However, investors and analysts remain concerned about the market’s volatility, and forecast that the recent rally of Bitcoin might be temporary. One example is the top financial and technology analyst Kevin Dennean, who appears to be on the pessimistic side of Bitcoin.
In 2017, Bitcoin was trading at an all-time high of around $20K. other cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum, Ripple, Litecoin, etc. had also seen a significant increase in their prices and market capitalization . But, by the end of 2018, the market was already significantly down in comparison, losing more than 80% of its total gain from the 2017 peaks. Bitcoin shrunk to $3,000 and Ethereum, Ripple, Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin, etc. have all experienced the same wash off of their value.
Currently, the crypto market seems to be getting back into shape, although it is still very far from the heights of 2017. Bitcoin is trading in the range of $5,000-$6,000. Other cryptocurrencies are also moving well helping the market to get back on track. Many believe that this resurgence in the market will keep going on and Bitcoin may again reach the level of $20,000 or even higher.
In contrast to that belief, analysts and researchers at Swiss bank UBS have issued a warning, arguing that the rally is only temporary and the recent recovery of Bitcoin doesn’t mean that it will touch the same mark again.
Kevin Dennean of UBS wrote in a research note to clients :
“The argument here is that bitcoin has gone through its bubble phase and is ready to rise phoenix-like from the ashes just as other assets and indices did in the past.”
Dennean had been analyzing the previous well-known bubbles that include the Dow Jones in the Great Depression, the Nikkei in 1989, the Dotcom Boom and Bust, oil in 2008, and China’s recent stock market crash, and compared them with the frequent rise and fall of the Bitcoin price.
“We’re struck by how long it took other asset bubbles to recover their peak levels (as long as 22 years for the Dow Jones Industrials) and how pedestrian the annualized returns from trough to the recovery often are,” Dennean wrote. He also came to know some astonishing conclusions. For instance, he said that if the Bitcoin price movements would follow the same pattern as of the Dow Jones after the 1929 stock market collapse, it would take up to 22 years for Bitcoin to get back to its all-time high.
“Maybe crypto-bull contingents should consider what happens after the bubble–not every bubble that bursts recover the old highs,” Dennean warned.